Precision and Accuracy of Judgmental Estimation

Whereas probabilistic calibration has been a central normative concept of accuracy in previous research on interval estimates, we suggest here that normative approaches for the evaluation of judgmental estimates should consider the communicative interaction between the individuals who produce the judgments and those who receive or use them for making decisions. We analyze precision and error in judgment and consider the role of the accuracy±informativeness trade-o€ (Yaniv and Foster, 1995) in the communication of estimates. The results shed light on puzzling ®ndings reported earlier in the literature concerning the calibration of subjective con®dence intervals. *c 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.